Improvement of methodical approaches for risk assessment of innovative activity in strategic planning of enterprise development

Abstract

In modern conditions, companies need to have information about their environment in order to further develop. Under conditions of uncertainty, the analysis of not only the impact of the external environment, but also the internal environment becomes especially important for enterprises, which will increase the accuracy of determining the risk factors of the enterprise in the strategic planning of its development. Without taking into account key trends, systematic diagnosis of the internal environment and identification of problems (weaknesses) of the enterprise, it is impossible to effectively implement innovative projects. In order to identify the most important factors of negative impact, which should be taken into account when assessing the risks of innovation in strategic planning of enterprise development, it is advisable to investigate the impact of external (macro- and microenvironment) and internal environment at each stage of the innovation project life cycle. The purpose of this article is to improve methodological approaches to assessing the risks of innovation in the strategic planning of enterprise development and providing recommendations on the possibility of their use. The article analyzes two methodological approaches to assessing the risks of innovation activity in strategic planning of enterprise development. The first methodological approach considered makes it possible to identify the most risk- generating factors at each stage of the life cycle of an innovation project. The calculation of the final value of the risk of each project of the enterprise is possible under the assessment of risk factors of the enterprise (using a rating scale that will identify risk factors of each of the factors for each of the analyzed projects). The second methodological approach will allow to estimate the probability of realization / non-realization of the project depending on the available statistical information on innovative projects and to predict the possibility of closing projects with the help of analytical models, and also allows you to assess the risk inherent in both individual stages of the life cycle of the innovation project and the innovation project for a certain planned period of time.