Forecasting the level of investment ensure of agricultural development

Abstract

Assessment of the formation of the level of investment ensure and its impact on the indicators of agricultural development requires the use of mathematical methods of parametric forecasting. The methodological approaches have been substantiated and methodical approach to forecasting the level of investment ensuring of agricultural development has been developed in the paper. Investment ensure for agriculture has been proposed to be considered simultaneously as a result of the influence of internal and external factors, as well as a factor affecting the parameters of the industry’s development. The use of gross value added in agriculture as an indicator of the efficiency of investment ensuring and the parameter of agricultural development has been substantiated. The methodical approach to the analysis of investment ensure based on time factor has been improved. Multi-factor econometric model has been developed for assessing the influence of factors (profitability level, volume of lending, state support, foreign direct investment) on the level of investment ensure for agriculture. Indicators of investment ensure of agricultural development have been forecast on the basis of econometric model using data extrapolation method by linear, logarithmic, polynomial and exponential mathematical functions for each factor. An econometric model for assessing the impact of the level of investment ensure on gross value added in agriculture has been developed and used to predict the level of agricultural development. The projected values of investment and gross value added in agriculture in Ukraine have been calculated in an optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenario. The need to increase the efficiency of agricultural producers, the volume of lending and state support to achieve the appropriate parameters of investment ensure for agricultural development has been substantiated.